Saddam Hussein's Hanging - Possible Geopolitical Costs for the U.S.

Saddam Hussein wasn't termed the "Butcher ofinsufficient to contain the increased sectarian violence
Baghdad" for nothing. He was a ruthless dictator whothat will occur in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein's
committed widespread crimes against humanity. Hehanging. According to the Congressional Research
was responsible for the deaths of hundreds ofService (CRS), there are currently 23 known militias in
thousands of Iraqis. He deserved to be brought toIraq. The Mahdi Army has as many as 60,000
justice for his crimes. Yet, in a sharp detour from thefighters. The Badr militia has 5,000, but is also
road to justice, Saddam Hussein was hanged in whatassisted by Iran. There are up to 40,000 active Sunni
amounted to little more than yet another act of theinsurgents. Al Qaeda has as many as 3,500 foreign
kind of raw sectarian revenge that has come tofighters. These figures do not include sympathizers
define post-war Iraq. By handing Hussein over to bewho provide non-military support to the various
hanged even as real due process concerns persisted,armed elements. Presently, these groups enjoy
the U.S. not only foreclosed the opportunity to bringmilitary advantages from local knowledge and support
Hussein to justice, but also undertook a course thatnetworks, speed in which they can carry out attacks,
will likely impose additional adverse geopoliticaland dramatically lower operating costs than the U.S.
consequences at a time when it can ill-afford moreThese advantages have allowed the various armed
such burdens.elements to bring about a military stalemate.
By delivering Hussein to be hanged, the U.S. took itsThe United States may also have weakened the
most visible step to date in embracing Prime Ministercredibility of its stated intent to see Iraq evolve into
Nouri al-Maliki's pursuit of sectarian domination for thea state defined by the rule of law. Leading human
Shia. Such a course is to be expected from Maliki, asrights groups expressed concern about the legal
his Shia-led government continues to depend, to aprocess that led to Saddam Hussein's conviction and
large extent, on support from parties associated withhanging. Human Rights Watch argued that there were
the Mahdi Army and Badr Militia, two leading Shia"serious procedural flaws" during the trial. According
militias that have played major roles in instigating andto that group, the actions of Iraq's government
carrying out sectarian violence. Its policies have"undermined the independence and perceived
politically and economically disenfranchised the Iraq'simpartiality of the court," there were "numerous
Sunnis and put that nation firmly on the path ofshortcomings in the timely disclosure of incriminating
fragmentation.evidence," there were "violations of the defendants'
By catering to the desires of a sectarian governmentbasic fair trial right to confront witnesses against
that has tilted increasingly toward Iran againstthem," and there were "lapses of judicial demeanor
American interests, the U.S. has damaged its ability tothat undermined the apparent impartiality of the
serve as an "honest broker" for national reconciliationpresiding judge." Amnesty International charged that
in Iraq. It has possibly squandered its ability tothe legal process "failed to satisfy international fair
effectively reach out to Sunni leaders and therebytrial standards. Political interference undermined the
made it more difficult to bring stability to Iraq.independence and impartiality of the court, causing
The fact that the hanging was carried out at thethe first presiding judge to resign and blocking the
onset of Eid al-Adha, an important Sunni religiousappointment of another, and the court failed to take
holiday, has further driven wedges between theadequate measures to ensure the protection of
Sunnis and Iraq's Shia-led government and betweenwitnesses and defense lawyers, three of whom
the Sunnis and the United States. Eid al-Adha is awere assassinated during the course of the trial.
feast of sacrifice. It is an occasion for forgiveness.Saddam Hussein was also denied access to legal
The timing of the hanging could only have sharpenedcounsel for the first year after his arrest, and
the Sunnis' pain and sense of humiliation. Worse, thecomplaints by his lawyers throughout the trial relating
hanging was carried out to shouts of "Moqtada," ato the proceedings do not appear to have been
Shia cleric who has played a leading role in incitingadequately answered by the tribunal. The appeal
violence against Iraq's Sunnis and whose militia isprocess was obviously conducted in haste and failed
responsible for ethnic cleansing in sections ofto rectify any of the flaws of the first trial." As a
Baghdad. All said, the Maliki government sent anconsequence, especially among Iraq's Sunnis and
unmistakable message to Iraq's Sunnis that the Iraq itneighboring Arab states, the credibility of the U.S.
envisions has no respect for their religious traditionscommitment to due process has been undermined.
and has no place for them.Such a development is not helpful in advancing the
That message will likely translate in increased andobjectives of American public diplomacy in a region in
more intense sectarian violence. With Sunni Arabwhich the U.S. is widely viewed unfavorably.
states increasingly concerned about Iranian aspirationsReflecting Sunni sentiments, the Al Quds al-Arabi
for regional domination, it is possible that such stateswebsite opined, "The American Government suffered
could passively permit their citizens to assist Iraq'sa lethal blow from its allies in Iraq when they acted in
Sunnis. Should the Sunnis be pushed to the brink ofan abhorrent sectarian way at a critical historic
disaster, it is even possible that these states couldmoment as they insisted on carrying out the death
actively lend military, financial, and technical assistancesentence on the blessed day of Eid al-Adha, one of
to them in a bid to safeguard their own criticalthe most sacred days in Islam, and allowed some
interests. The interests of moderate Sunni statesspiteful people to insult the Iraqi president with
such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia would bepolitical slogans and offensive words without any
endangered by a Shia victory in Iraq that wouldrespect for the sanctity of the dead and the
transform that country into a vehicle from which Iransensitivity of the occasion." It added, "We do not
could project its growing power.exaggerate if we say that it deliberately made this
The hanging could also reunify the fractured anti-U.S.insult and this humiliation to more than 1.5 billion
Ba'athist movement. With Sunnis feeling that theyMuslims through this barbaric implementation of the
cannot count on either the pro-Shia government indeath sentence and the humiliating violations during it."
Baghdad or the U.S. for protection, Iraq's increasinglyIn short, at least among Sunnis who comprise the
disenfranchised Sunni population could turn to themajority of the world's Muslims, the U.S. may have
Ba'athists for protection. If so, that movement couldsuffered a self-inflicted setback that further
regain the vigor it lost when Saddam Hussein's regimecomplicates its ability to build a constructive
was toppled and its leaders were either captured orrelationship with the Muslim world.
sent into hiding. At the same time, if the SunnisIn the end, while the hanging of Saddam Hussein
conclude that their community in Iraq is confrontedclosed a terrible chapter in Iraq's history, it likely
with near-certain destruction, there is some risk thatopened the door to a fresh tragic sequel that could
such a situation could provide Al Qaeda in Iraq withfurther undermine Iraq's prospects for stability and
the opening it seeks to become "mainstreamed"unity. It will also likely worsen the U.S. geopolitical
among Iraq's Sunnis, not to mention among Sunnisposition in the region on account of its further
worldwide. Such a development would greatlyreducing the already scarce options available to the
complicate the overall U.S.-led war on terrorism.U.S. for addressing the challenges it faces in Iraq.
Nevertheless, it is a development that cannot beWhether or not the U.S. has lost its ability to work
dismissed altogether.with the Sunnis remains to be seen, but robust
An increase in U.S. soldiers, perhaps along the lines ofefforts to repair the damage will be needed and
that recommended by Frederick Kagan of thethere will be short-term costs that will be incurred on
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), will likely beaccount of the recent hanging of Saddam Hussein.