| Saddam Hussein wasn't termed the "Butcher of | | | | insufficient to contain the increased sectarian violence |
| Baghdad" for nothing. He was a ruthless dictator who | | | | that will occur in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein's |
| committed widespread crimes against humanity. He | | | | hanging. According to the Congressional Research |
| was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of | | | | Service (CRS), there are currently 23 known militias in |
| thousands of Iraqis. He deserved to be brought to | | | | Iraq. The Mahdi Army has as many as 60,000 |
| justice for his crimes. Yet, in a sharp detour from the | | | | fighters. The Badr militia has 5,000, but is also |
| road to justice, Saddam Hussein was hanged in what | | | | assisted by Iran. There are up to 40,000 active Sunni |
| amounted to little more than yet another act of the | | | | insurgents. Al Qaeda has as many as 3,500 foreign |
| kind of raw sectarian revenge that has come to | | | | fighters. These figures do not include sympathizers |
| define post-war Iraq. By handing Hussein over to be | | | | who provide non-military support to the various |
| hanged even as real due process concerns persisted, | | | | armed elements. Presently, these groups enjoy |
| the U.S. not only foreclosed the opportunity to bring | | | | military advantages from local knowledge and support |
| Hussein to justice, but also undertook a course that | | | | networks, speed in which they can carry out attacks, |
| will likely impose additional adverse geopolitical | | | | and dramatically lower operating costs than the U.S. |
| consequences at a time when it can ill-afford more | | | | These advantages have allowed the various armed |
| such burdens. | | | | elements to bring about a military stalemate. |
| By delivering Hussein to be hanged, the U.S. took its | | | | The United States may also have weakened the |
| most visible step to date in embracing Prime Minister | | | | credibility of its stated intent to see Iraq evolve into |
| Nouri al-Maliki's pursuit of sectarian domination for the | | | | a state defined by the rule of law. Leading human |
| Shia. Such a course is to be expected from Maliki, as | | | | rights groups expressed concern about the legal |
| his Shia-led government continues to depend, to a | | | | process that led to Saddam Hussein's conviction and |
| large extent, on support from parties associated with | | | | hanging. Human Rights Watch argued that there were |
| the Mahdi Army and Badr Militia, two leading Shia | | | | "serious procedural flaws" during the trial. According |
| militias that have played major roles in instigating and | | | | to that group, the actions of Iraq's government |
| carrying out sectarian violence. Its policies have | | | | "undermined the independence and perceived |
| politically and economically disenfranchised the Iraq's | | | | impartiality of the court," there were "numerous |
| Sunnis and put that nation firmly on the path of | | | | shortcomings in the timely disclosure of incriminating |
| fragmentation. | | | | evidence," there were "violations of the defendants' |
| By catering to the desires of a sectarian government | | | | basic fair trial right to confront witnesses against |
| that has tilted increasingly toward Iran against | | | | them," and there were "lapses of judicial demeanor |
| American interests, the U.S. has damaged its ability to | | | | that undermined the apparent impartiality of the |
| serve as an "honest broker" for national reconciliation | | | | presiding judge." Amnesty International charged that |
| in Iraq. It has possibly squandered its ability to | | | | the legal process "failed to satisfy international fair |
| effectively reach out to Sunni leaders and thereby | | | | trial standards. Political interference undermined the |
| made it more difficult to bring stability to Iraq. | | | | independence and impartiality of the court, causing |
| The fact that the hanging was carried out at the | | | | the first presiding judge to resign and blocking the |
| onset of Eid al-Adha, an important Sunni religious | | | | appointment of another, and the court failed to take |
| holiday, has further driven wedges between the | | | | adequate measures to ensure the protection of |
| Sunnis and Iraq's Shia-led government and between | | | | witnesses and defense lawyers, three of whom |
| the Sunnis and the United States. Eid al-Adha is a | | | | were assassinated during the course of the trial. |
| feast of sacrifice. It is an occasion for forgiveness. | | | | Saddam Hussein was also denied access to legal |
| The timing of the hanging could only have sharpened | | | | counsel for the first year after his arrest, and |
| the Sunnis' pain and sense of humiliation. Worse, the | | | | complaints by his lawyers throughout the trial relating |
| hanging was carried out to shouts of "Moqtada," a | | | | to the proceedings do not appear to have been |
| Shia cleric who has played a leading role in inciting | | | | adequately answered by the tribunal. The appeal |
| violence against Iraq's Sunnis and whose militia is | | | | process was obviously conducted in haste and failed |
| responsible for ethnic cleansing in sections of | | | | to rectify any of the flaws of the first trial." As a |
| Baghdad. All said, the Maliki government sent an | | | | consequence, especially among Iraq's Sunnis and |
| unmistakable message to Iraq's Sunnis that the Iraq it | | | | neighboring Arab states, the credibility of the U.S. |
| envisions has no respect for their religious traditions | | | | commitment to due process has been undermined. |
| and has no place for them. | | | | Such a development is not helpful in advancing the |
| That message will likely translate in increased and | | | | objectives of American public diplomacy in a region in |
| more intense sectarian violence. With Sunni Arab | | | | which the U.S. is widely viewed unfavorably. |
| states increasingly concerned about Iranian aspirations | | | | Reflecting Sunni sentiments, the Al Quds al-Arabi |
| for regional domination, it is possible that such states | | | | website opined, "The American Government suffered |
| could passively permit their citizens to assist Iraq's | | | | a lethal blow from its allies in Iraq when they acted in |
| Sunnis. Should the Sunnis be pushed to the brink of | | | | an abhorrent sectarian way at a critical historic |
| disaster, it is even possible that these states could | | | | moment as they insisted on carrying out the death |
| actively lend military, financial, and technical assistance | | | | sentence on the blessed day of Eid al-Adha, one of |
| to them in a bid to safeguard their own critical | | | | the most sacred days in Islam, and allowed some |
| interests. The interests of moderate Sunni states | | | | spiteful people to insult the Iraqi president with |
| such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia would be | | | | political slogans and offensive words without any |
| endangered by a Shia victory in Iraq that would | | | | respect for the sanctity of the dead and the |
| transform that country into a vehicle from which Iran | | | | sensitivity of the occasion." It added, "We do not |
| could project its growing power. | | | | exaggerate if we say that it deliberately made this |
| The hanging could also reunify the fractured anti-U.S. | | | | insult and this humiliation to more than 1.5 billion |
| Ba'athist movement. With Sunnis feeling that they | | | | Muslims through this barbaric implementation of the |
| cannot count on either the pro-Shia government in | | | | death sentence and the humiliating violations during it." |
| Baghdad or the U.S. for protection, Iraq's increasingly | | | | In short, at least among Sunnis who comprise the |
| disenfranchised Sunni population could turn to the | | | | majority of the world's Muslims, the U.S. may have |
| Ba'athists for protection. If so, that movement could | | | | suffered a self-inflicted setback that further |
| regain the vigor it lost when Saddam Hussein's regime | | | | complicates its ability to build a constructive |
| was toppled and its leaders were either captured or | | | | relationship with the Muslim world. |
| sent into hiding. At the same time, if the Sunnis | | | | In the end, while the hanging of Saddam Hussein |
| conclude that their community in Iraq is confronted | | | | closed a terrible chapter in Iraq's history, it likely |
| with near-certain destruction, there is some risk that | | | | opened the door to a fresh tragic sequel that could |
| such a situation could provide Al Qaeda in Iraq with | | | | further undermine Iraq's prospects for stability and |
| the opening it seeks to become "mainstreamed" | | | | unity. It will also likely worsen the U.S. geopolitical |
| among Iraq's Sunnis, not to mention among Sunnis | | | | position in the region on account of its further |
| worldwide. Such a development would greatly | | | | reducing the already scarce options available to the |
| complicate the overall U.S.-led war on terrorism. | | | | U.S. for addressing the challenges it faces in Iraq. |
| Nevertheless, it is a development that cannot be | | | | Whether or not the U.S. has lost its ability to work |
| dismissed altogether. | | | | with the Sunnis remains to be seen, but robust |
| An increase in U.S. soldiers, perhaps along the lines of | | | | efforts to repair the damage will be needed and |
| that recommended by Frederick Kagan of the | | | | there will be short-term costs that will be incurred on |
| American Enterprise Institute (AEI), will likely be | | | | account of the recent hanging of Saddam Hussein. |